earnings growth

It’s Okay

May 6, 2014
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Earnings season is past its peak, and things generally look good. We didn’t have blow out good news, nor did we have any big negatives. All in all, the trend of the last few years—slow and steady earnings growth with a sprinkle of exogenous worries—remains intact. In short, things are okay.

Let’s let the data speak (All of the data below comes from Standard & Poor’s). As of Friday’s market close, 375 (i.e., 75%) of the 500 S&P 500 constituent companies had reported results. Two-thirds (i.e., 250) of the reporting companies beat analysts’ estimates, 87 missed and 38 hit their number exactly. This is pretty consistent with recent history. (more…)

HFG Perspectives: March

March 6, 2014
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“We all know by now that bull markets tend to take a few steps forward and then give a bit back. While it’s never enjoyable to watch our account balances decline over the shorter term, stock markets gave back a bit in January. While the talking heads on TV might attempt to make us think that the next crisis is at our doorstep—that’s just how the media business works—the decline we’ve been witnessing for the last month has been, if anything, average.”

We opened last month’s letter with the paragraph above, and we think it applies nicely today as well. After all, after having a rough go of things in January, the S&P 500 closed out February at all-time highs. Two steps forward and one step back, indeed. (more…)

Back to Business

October 22, 2013
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Well, they came up with an eleventh hour deal to the problem that they themselves created…again. Hooray! Shall we replay it all over again in three or four months? Probably.

Of course, the “they” I reference are our country’s “leaders,” and the “deal” is an agreement to agree to disagree again early in 2014. Until then, though, the debt limit has leeway, government is reopened and federal employees will get back pay. Of course, the private sector that lost money due to the shut down won’t be as fortunate. (more…)